An Overview of Civil Aviation Accidents and Risk Analysis

Abstract

Civil aviation safety has always been a prominent issue of general concern to the society. The causes of modern civil aviation accidents have become increasingly complex and diverse, which pose several new challenges to the study of aviation accidents and risks. This paper reviews the general civil aviation risk researches over the past 30 years, especially in the last 10 years, with the goal of providing research ideas for the evolution and innovation of the civil aviation risk analysis methods. Based on the CAST/ICAO Common Classification Team (CICTT) statistics, three main categories with the highest number of fatalities in civil aviation accidents are identified and selected as the main focus in this study: aircraft loss-of-control, controlled flight into terrain and runway excursion. The relevant research results for each of these types of accident are retrieved from literatures, outlining the process of applying the risk analysis to these accident types. Overall, in line with the progressing interest towards big-data-based risk analysis, both concerns about human factors and also confidence in future application and results of artificial intelligent (AI) technology in the civil aviation risk analysis on the large scale are highlighted. This paper concludes with discussion on the significance of building a risk management framework for deep learning models, which is crucial for the validity and credibility of the risk analysis.